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Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 12, 7:30 PM
Doyt L. Perry StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
| BGSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BGSU 1424
NIU 1452
Projected spread
BGSU -1.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
BGSU
54% to win
Market spread
BGSU -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
54%
BGSU · market 58%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BGSU Elo 1424, NIU Elo 1452) plus home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -1.3 (54% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BGSU (top)NIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BGSU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
NIU2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedBGSU
Offense
0.16
PPA / play
0.2142%
Success rate
43%1.23
Explosiveness
1.273.39
Pts / opportunity
3.8472%
Power success
78%Defense
0.06
PPA allowed / play
0.1338%
Success rate allowed
38%1.20
Explosiveness allowed
1.3318%
Havoc rate
16%15%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- BGSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.03 allowed) — edge BGSU.
- NIU pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. BGSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge NIU.
- BGSU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge BGSU.
Drive-by-drive
NIU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →BGSU 1/11 scoring drives
NIUFG10 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q1
BGSUTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NIUDOWNS7 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q1
BGSUMISS8 pl, 37 yds· own 39Q1
NIUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 24Q1
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 41Q2
NIUPUNT7 pl, 20 yds· own 17Q2
BGSUFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q2
NIUMISS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 10Q2
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 17Q2
NIUFG13 pl, 54 yds· own 42Q2
BGSUPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 35Q2
NIUEND2 pl, 12 yds· own 26Q2
BGSUMISS13 pl, 59 yds· own 27Q3
NIUPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q3
BGSUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 16Q3
NIUTD7 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q3
BGSUDOWNS8 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q4
NIUFG12 pl, 59 yds· own 31Q4
BGSUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 27Q4
NIUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 40Q4
BGSUINT7 pl, 20 yds· own 17Q4
NIUEND3 pl, -3 yds· opp 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BGSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,674 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
BGSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green?
Northern Illinois 17, Bowling Green 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BGSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.