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Tulane vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Dec 7, 1:00 AM
Michie StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| ARMY | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARMY 1611
TULN 1829
Projected spread
ARMY +6.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
TULN
68% to win
Market spread
ARMY +5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
32%
ARMY · market 35%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARMY Elo 1611, TULN Elo 1829) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARMY +6.3 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARMY (top)TULN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARMY 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
TULN2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedARMY
Offense
0.27
PPA / play
0.3245%
Success rate
51%1.29
Explosiveness
1.094.50
Pts / opportunity
4.4775%
Power success
86%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.1238%
Success rate allowed
43%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.2117%
Havoc rate
15%18%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- ARMY pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. TULN pass defense (0.07 allowed) — edge ARMY.
- TULN pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. ARMY pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge TULN.
- ARMY rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. TULN rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge ARMY.
Drive-by-drive
TULN 2/6 scoring drives← own end zone →ARMY 5/8 scoring drives
TULNDOWNS8 pl, 48 yds· own 24Q1
ARMYTD11 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
TULNMISS12 pl, 46 yds· own 34Q1
ARMYTD3 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
ARMYDOWNS10 pl, 34 yds· opp 38Q2
TULNINT3 pl, 16 yds· own 4Q2
ARMYTD5 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q2
TULNTD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2
ARMYEND1 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
ARMYTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
TULNDOWNS12 pl, 44 yds· own 40Q3
ARMYTD16 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3
TULNTD16 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
ARMYEND2 pl, -3 yds· opp 44Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARMY up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
ARMY went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Army?
Tulane 14, Army 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TULN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had TULN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.