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UL Monroe vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 5, 11:30 PM
Davis Wade StadiumESPNU
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSST 1468
ULM 1016
Projected spread
MSST -24.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
MSST
97% to win
Market spread
MSST -28.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ULM
3.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
MSST (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MSST Elo 1468, ULM Elo 1016) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSST -24.7 (97% to win) — 3.8 points of value on ULM versus the market line of -28.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelULM 3% · MSST 97%
Pick: MSST
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ULM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMSST
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.1436%
Success rate
42%1.41
Explosiveness
1.293.19
Pts / opportunity
4.4178%
Power success
72%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
0.2241%
Success rate allowed
44%1.36
Explosiveness allowed
1.2714%
Havoc rate
14%18%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- ULM rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. MSST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MSST.
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ULM pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ULM.
- ULM pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MSST.
FAQ
Who will win UL Monroe vs. Mississippi State?
Gridpex's model favors Mississippi State with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UL Monroe vs. Mississippi State?
The model projects Mississippi State by 24.7.
What time is UL Monroe vs. Mississippi State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 11:30 PM on ESPNU, at Davis Wade Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Mississippi State at 97% to win, projecting Mississippi State by 24.7.