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Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 5, 11:00 PM
Kyle FieldESPN
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TA&M 1872
MOST 1328
Projected spread
TA&M -29.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
TA&M
99% to win
Market spread
TA&M -38.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MOST
9.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
TA&M (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TA&M Elo 1872, MOST Elo 1328) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -29.5 (99% to win) — 9.0 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -38.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMOST 1% · TA&M 99%
Pick: TA&M
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MOST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTA&M
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.2439%
Success rate
46%1.50
Explosiveness
1.233.69
Pts / opportunity
4.1461%
Power success
75%Defense
0.23
PPA allowed / play
0.1343%
Success rate allowed
34%1.31
Explosiveness allowed
1.4515%
Havoc rate
21%20%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. TA&M pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. TA&M rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge TA&M.
- TA&M pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge TA&M.
FAQ
Who will win Missouri State vs. Texas A&M?
Gridpex's model favors Texas A&M with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Missouri State vs. Texas A&M?
The model projects Texas A&M by 29.5.
What time is Missouri State vs. Texas A&M and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 11:00 PM on ESPN, at Kyle Field.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Texas A&M at 99% to win, projecting Texas A&M by 29.5.