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UTSA vs. Texas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 AM
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumSECN+
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TEX 1926
UTSA 1668
Projected spread
TEX -13.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
TEX
85% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
85%
TEX (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TEX Elo 1926, UTSA Elo 1668) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -13.9 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUTSA 15% · TEX 85%
Pick: TEX
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UTSA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTEX
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.1845%
Success rate
40%1.34
Explosiveness
1.374.23
Pts / opportunity
3.5273%
Power success
63%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.1040%
Success rate allowed
39%1.38
Explosiveness allowed
1.1819%
Havoc rate
18%18%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- UTSA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. TEX rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge UTSA.
- UTSA pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. TEX pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge UTSA.
- TEX rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. UTSA rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UTSA.
FAQ
Who will win UTSA vs. Texas?
Gridpex's model favors Texas with a 85% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTSA vs. Texas?
The model projects Texas by 13.9.
What time is UTSA vs. Texas and what channel is it on?
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 AM on SECN+, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Texas at 85% to win, projecting Texas by 13.9.