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Mississippi State vs. Texas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TEX 1926
MSST 1468
Projected spread
TEX -17.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
TEX
90% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
90%
TEX (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TEX Elo 1926, MSST Elo 1468) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -17.3 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMSST 10% · TEX 90%
Pick: TEX
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MSST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTEX
Offense
0.14
PPA / play
0.1842%
Success rate
40%1.29
Explosiveness
1.374.41
Pts / opportunity
3.5272%
Power success
63%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.1044%
Success rate allowed
39%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.1814%
Havoc rate
18%14%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. TEX rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge MSST.
- TEX rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. MSST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MSST.
- TEX pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MSST.
FAQ
Who will win Mississippi State vs. Texas?
Gridpex's model favors Texas with a 90% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Mississippi State vs. Texas?
The model projects Texas by 17.3.
What time is Mississippi State vs. Texas and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Texas at 90% to win, projecting Texas by 17.3.