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Utah State vs. Utah Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM
Rice-Eccles StadiumFOX
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UTAH 1976
USU 1446
Projected spread
UTAH -25.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
UTAH
97% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
UTAH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UTAH Elo 1976, USU Elo 1446) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -25.9 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUSU 3% · UTAH 97%
Pick: UTAH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
USU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUTAH
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.3641%
Success rate
49%1.35
Explosiveness
1.274.49
Pts / opportunity
5.0171%
Power success
82%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.0743%
Success rate allowed
38%1.25
Explosiveness allowed
1.3413%
Havoc rate
17%16%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- USU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. UTAH pass defense (0.01 allowed) — edge USU.
- UTAH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. USU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UTAH.
- UTAH rush offense (0.35 PPA) vs. USU rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge UTAH.
FAQ
Who will win Utah State vs. Utah?
Gridpex's model favors Utah with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Utah State vs. Utah?
The model projects Utah by 25.9.
What time is Utah State vs. Utah and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM on FOX, at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Utah at 97% to win, projecting Utah by 25.9.