← All games
Kansas vs. Arizona State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM
Wembley StadiumFS1Neutral siteConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ASU 1609
KU 1516
Projected spread
ASU -1.6
neutral site
Model pick
ASU
55% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
55%
ASU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ASU Elo 1609, KU Elo 1516) on a neutral field. That projects ASU -1.6 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelKU 45% · ASU 55%
Pick: ASU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
KU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedASU
Offense
0.25
PPA / play
0.1448%
Success rate
40%1.18
Explosiveness
1.263.94
Pts / opportunity
3.3784%
Power success
63%Defense
0.25
PPA allowed / play
0.1042%
Success rate allowed
41%1.43
Explosiveness allowed
1.2218%
Havoc rate
19%22%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- KU rush offense (0.22 PPA) vs. ASU rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge KU.
- KU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. ASU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge KU.
- ASU pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. KU pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge KU.
FAQ
Who will win Kansas vs. Arizona State?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona State with a 55% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kansas vs. Arizona State?
The model projects Arizona State by 1.6.
What time is Kansas vs. Arizona State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM on FS1, at Wembley Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Arizona State at 55% to win, projecting Arizona State by 1.6.