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Colorado vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BAY 1509
COLO 1344
Projected spread
BAY -10.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
BAY
79% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
79%
BAY (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BAY Elo 1509, COLO Elo 1344) plus home-field advantage. That projects BAY -10.7 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCOLO 21% · BAY 79%
Pick: BAY
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
COLO2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBAY
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.2035%
Success rate
45%1.44
Explosiveness
1.273.48
Pts / opportunity
3.6967%
Power success
77%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.1843%
Success rate allowed
44%1.33
Explosiveness allowed
1.1615%
Havoc rate
12%20%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- BAY pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. COLO pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge COLO.
- COLO rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. BAY rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge BAY.
- BAY rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. COLO rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge BAY.
FAQ
Who will win Colorado vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Colorado vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 10.7.
What time is Colorado vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at McLane Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Baylor at 79% to win, projecting Baylor by 10.7.