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BYU vs. TCU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TCU 1670
BYU 1750
Projected spread
TCU +3.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
BYU
59% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
41%
TCU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TCU Elo 1670, BYU Elo 1750) plus home-field advantage. That projects TCU +3.2 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBYU 59% · TCU 41%
Pick: BYU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BYU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTCU
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.2146%
Success rate
44%1.19
Explosiveness
1.284.03
Pts / opportunity
4.1482%
Power success
77%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.1539%
Success rate allowed
40%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.2916%
Havoc rate
15%21%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- TCU pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. BYU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge TCU.
- BYU rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. TCU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge BYU.
- BYU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. TCU pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge TCU.
FAQ
Who will win BYU vs. TCU?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 59% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for BYU vs. TCU?
The model projects BYU by 3.2.
What time is BYU vs. TCU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this BYU at 59% to win, projecting BYU by 3.2.