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Iowa State vs. BYU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Oct 10, 2:15 AM
LaVell Edwards StadiumESPNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BYU 1750
ISU 1629
Projected spread
BYU -7.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
BYU
72% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
72%
BYU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BYU Elo 1750, ISU Elo 1629) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -7.9 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelISU 28% · BYU 72%
Pick: BYU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ISU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBYU
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.2245%
Success rate
46%1.21
Explosiveness
1.193.54
Pts / opportunity
4.0369%
Power success
82%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.0939%
Success rate allowed
39%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.2217%
Havoc rate
16%21%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- BYU rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. ISU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge BYU.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. BYU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ISU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge ISU.
FAQ
Who will win Iowa State vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 72% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Iowa State vs. BYU?
The model projects BYU by 7.9.
What time is Iowa State vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 10, 2:15 AM on ESPN, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this BYU at 72% to win, projecting BYU by 7.9.