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BYU vs. UCF Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UCF 1448
BYU 1750
Projected spread
UCF +12.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
BYU
82% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
18%
UCF (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UCF Elo 1448, BYU Elo 1750) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCF +12.4 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBYU 82% · UCF 18%
Pick: BYU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BYU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUCF
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.1446%
Success rate
39%1.19
Explosiveness
1.384.03
Pts / opportunity
3.4982%
Power success
62%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.1239%
Success rate allowed
44%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.1216%
Havoc rate
16%21%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- BYU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. UCF pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge BYU.
- BYU rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UCF rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge BYU.
- UCF rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge UCF.
FAQ
Who will win BYU vs. UCF?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 82% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for BYU vs. UCF?
The model projects BYU by 12.4.
What time is BYU vs. UCF and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this BYU at 82% to win, projecting BYU by 12.4.