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BYU vs. Utah Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UTAH 1976
BYU 1750
Projected spread
UTAH -9.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
UTAH
77% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
77%
UTAH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UTAH Elo 1976, BYU Elo 1750) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -9.9 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBYU 23% · UTAH 77%
Pick: UTAH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BYU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUTAH
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.3646%
Success rate
49%1.19
Explosiveness
1.274.03
Pts / opportunity
5.0182%
Power success
82%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.0739%
Success rate allowed
38%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.3416%
Havoc rate
17%21%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- UTAH rush offense (0.35 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge UTAH.
- BYU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. UTAH pass defense (0.01 allowed) — edge BYU.
- UTAH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. BYU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UTAH.
FAQ
Who will win BYU vs. Utah?
Gridpex's model favors Utah with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for BYU vs. Utah?
The model projects Utah by 9.9.
What time is BYU vs. Utah and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Utah at 77% to win, projecting Utah by 9.9.