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TCU vs. Arizona Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Nov 7, 3:15 AM
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARIZ 1688
TCU 1670
Projected spread
ARIZ -4.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
ARIZ
64% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
64%
ARIZ (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ARIZ Elo 1688, TCU Elo 1670) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -4.8 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelTCU 36% · ARIZ 64%
Pick: ARIZ
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TCU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedARIZ
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.1944%
Success rate
43%1.28
Explosiveness
1.294.14
Pts / opportunity
3.6177%
Power success
74%Defense
0.15
PPA allowed / play
0.1040%
Success rate allowed
39%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2015%
Havoc rate
20%17%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- TCU pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. ARIZ pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge TCU.
- ARIZ rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. TCU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge ARIZ.
- TCU rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. ARIZ rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge ARIZ.
FAQ
Who will win TCU vs. Arizona?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona with a 64% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for TCU vs. Arizona?
The model projects Arizona by 4.8.
What time is TCU vs. Arizona and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:15 AM on ESPN, at Arizona Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Arizona at 64% to win, projecting Arizona by 4.8.