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Baylor vs. BYU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BYU 1750
BAY 1509
Projected spread
BYU -14.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
BYU
86% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
86%
BYU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BYU Elo 1750, BAY Elo 1509) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -14.7 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBAY 14% · BYU 86%
Pick: BYU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BAY2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBYU
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.2245%
Success rate
46%1.27
Explosiveness
1.193.69
Pts / opportunity
4.0377%
Power success
82%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.0944%
Success rate allowed
39%1.16
Explosiveness allowed
1.2212%
Havoc rate
16%15%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- BAY rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge BAY.
- BAY pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. BYU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge BAY.
- BYU rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. BAY rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge BYU.
FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 86% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. BYU?
The model projects BYU by 14.7.
What time is Baylor vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this BYU at 86% to win, projecting BYU by 14.7.