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Duke vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ILL 1595
DUKE 1622
Projected spread
ILL -5.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
ILL
65% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
65%
ILL (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ILL Elo 1595, DUKE Elo 1622) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL -5.4 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelDUKE 35% · ILL 65%
Pick: ILL
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
DUKE2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedILL
Offense
0.25
PPA / play
0.2146%
Success rate
48%1.33
Explosiveness
1.174.32
Pts / opportunity
4.2169%
Power success
73%Defense
0.23
PPA allowed / play
0.2044%
Success rate allowed
45%1.35
Explosiveness allowed
1.1917%
Havoc rate
15%23%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- DUKE pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. ILL pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge DUKE.
- ILL rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. DUKE rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge DUKE.
- DUKE rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. ILL rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge DUKE.
FAQ
Who will win Duke vs. Illinois?
Gridpex's model favors Illinois with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Duke vs. Illinois?
The model projects Illinois by 5.4.
What time is Duke vs. Illinois and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM on FS1, at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Illinois at 65% to win, projecting Illinois by 5.4.