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Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM
Lane StadiumThe CW Network
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
VT 1382
ODU 1670
Projected spread
VT +11.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ODU
80% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
20%
VT (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (VT Elo 1382, ODU Elo 1670) plus home-field advantage. That projects VT +11.6 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelODU 80% · VT 20%
Pick: ODU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ODU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedVT
Offense
0.25
PPA / play
0.1746%
Success rate
42%1.30
Explosiveness
1.253.94
Pts / opportunity
3.6864%
Power success
70%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.2839%
Success rate allowed
46%1.06
Explosiveness allowed
1.2619%
Havoc rate
13%21%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. ODU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge VT.
- VT pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ODU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge VT.
- ODU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. VT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge VT.
FAQ
Who will win Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech?
Gridpex's model favors Old Dominion with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech?
The model projects Old Dominion by 11.6.
What time is Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM on The CW Network, at Lane Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Old Dominion at 80% to win, projecting Old Dominion by 11.6.