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North Carolina vs. Clemson Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)ESPNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CLEM 1755
UNC 1320
Projected spread
CLEM -19.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
CLEM
92% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
92%
CLEM (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CLEM Elo 1755, UNC Elo 1320) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -19.1 (92% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUNC 8% · CLEM 92%
Pick: CLEM
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UNC2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCLEM
Offense
0.07
PPA / play
0.1938%
Success rate
42%1.16
Explosiveness
1.243.33
Pts / opportunity
3.8064%
Power success
72%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.1141%
Success rate allowed
37%1.25
Explosiveness allowed
1.3615%
Havoc rate
20%17%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- CLEM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. UNC pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge CLEM.
- UNC rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. CLEM rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge CLEM.
- CLEM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. UNC rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge UNC.
FAQ
Who will win North Carolina vs. Clemson?
Gridpex's model favors Clemson with a 92% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Carolina vs. Clemson?
The model projects Clemson by 19.1.
What time is North Carolina vs. Clemson and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM on ESPN, at Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Clemson at 92% to win, projecting Clemson by 19.1.