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Clemson vs. California Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 26, 2:30 AM
California Memorial StadiumESPNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CAL 1360
CLEM 1755
Projected spread
CAL +11.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
CLEM
81% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
19%
CAL (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CAL Elo 1360, CLEM Elo 1755) plus home-field advantage. That projects CAL +11.7 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCLEM 81% · CAL 19%
Pick: CLEM
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
CLEM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCAL
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.1242%
Success rate
41%1.24
Explosiveness
1.253.80
Pts / opportunity
3.7072%
Power success
70%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.1737%
Success rate allowed
42%1.36
Explosiveness allowed
1.1820%
Havoc rate
15%23%
Stuff rate
13%Key matchups · Pro
- CLEM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. CAL pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge CLEM.
- CLEM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. CAL rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CAL.
- CAL rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. CLEM rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge CLEM.
FAQ
Who will win Clemson vs. California?
Gridpex's model favors Clemson with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Clemson vs. California?
The model projects Clemson by 11.7.
What time is Clemson vs. California and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 26, 2:30 AM on ESPN, at California Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Clemson at 81% to win, projecting Clemson by 11.7.