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Louisville vs. NC State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Carter-Finley StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NCSU 1605
LOU 1749
Projected spread
NCSU +4.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
LOU
63% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
37%
NCSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NCSU Elo 1605, LOU Elo 1749) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU +4.4 (37% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelLOU 63% · NCSU 37%
Pick: LOU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
LOU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNCSU
Offense
0.15
PPA / play
0.2845%
Success rate
44%1.22
Explosiveness
1.383.62
Pts / opportunity
4.6965%
Power success
73%Defense
0.05
PPA allowed / play
0.2137%
Success rate allowed
39%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.4417%
Havoc rate
15%20%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- NCSU pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. LOU pass defense (0.06 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- LOU pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. NCSU pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- NCSU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. LOU rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge NCSU.
FAQ
Who will win Louisville vs. NC State?
Gridpex's model favors Louisville with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisville vs. NC State?
The model projects Louisville by 4.4.
What time is Louisville vs. NC State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Carter-Finley Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Louisville at 63% to win, projecting Louisville by 4.4.