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Syracuse vs. UConn Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM
Pratt & Whitney StadiumCBSSN
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CONN 1477
SYR 1182
Projected spread
CONN -17.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
CONN
91% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
91%
CONN (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CONN Elo 1477, SYR Elo 1182) plus home-field advantage. That projects CONN -17.7 (91% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSYR 9% · CONN 91%
Pick: CONN
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SYR2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCONN
Offense
0.03
PPA / play
0.3138%
Success rate
46%1.21
Explosiveness
1.342.98
Pts / opportunity
4.5870%
Power success
82%Defense
0.28
PPA allowed / play
0.2245%
Success rate allowed
47%1.32
Explosiveness allowed
1.2013%
Havoc rate
15%21%
Stuff rate
12%Key matchups · Pro
- SYR rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. CONN rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CONN.
- SYR pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. CONN pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge CONN.
- CONN rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. SYR rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge CONN.
FAQ
Who will win Syracuse vs. UConn?
Gridpex's model favors UConn with a 91% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Syracuse vs. UConn?
The model projects UConn by 17.7.
What time is Syracuse vs. UConn and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM on CBSSN, at Pratt & Whitney Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this UConn at 91% to win, projecting UConn by 17.7.