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North Texas vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)FOX
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
IU 2346
UNT 1709
Projected spread
IU -24.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
IU
96% to win
Market spread
IU -40.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UNT
16.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
IU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (IU Elo 2346, UNT Elo 1709) plus home-field advantage. That projects IU -24.1 (96% to win) — 16.4 points of value on UNT versus the market line of -40.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUNT 4% · IU 96%
Pick: IU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UNT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedIU
Offense
0.36
PPA / play
0.3251%
Success rate
51%1.33
Explosiveness
1.184.98
Pts / opportunity
5.1373%
Power success
69%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.0344%
Success rate allowed
35%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.3214%
Havoc rate
23%14%
Stuff rate
30%Key matchups · Pro
- UNT rush offense (0.33 PPA) vs. IU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge UNT.
- IU pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. UNT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge IU.
- UNT pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. IU pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge UNT.
FAQ
Who will win North Texas vs. Indiana?
Gridpex's model favors Indiana with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Texas vs. Indiana?
The model projects Indiana by 24.1.
What time is North Texas vs. Indiana and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM on FOX, at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Indiana at 96% to win, projecting Indiana by 24.1.