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Washington State vs. Washington Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sun, Sep 6, 8:00 PM
Husky StadiumNBC
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WASH 1866
WSU 1549
Projected spread
WASH -16.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
WASH
88% to win
Market spread
WASH -21.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WSU
5.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
WASH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WASH Elo 1866, WSU Elo 1549) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH -16.1 (88% to win) — 5.4 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -21.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWSU 12% · WASH 88%
Pick: WASH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
WSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWASH
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.2942%
Success rate
49%1.12
Explosiveness
1.233.93
Pts / opportunity
4.5868%
Power success
77%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.0840%
Success rate allowed
39%1.09
Explosiveness allowed
1.1814%
Havoc rate
15%18%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- WASH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge WASH.
- WASH rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge WASH.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge WSU.
FAQ
Who will win Washington State vs. Washington?
Gridpex's model favors Washington with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington State vs. Washington?
The model projects Washington by 16.1.
What time is Washington State vs. Washington and what channel is it on?
Sun, Sep 6, 8:00 PM on NBC, at Husky Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Washington at 88% to win, projecting Washington by 16.1.