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Penn State vs. Temple Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM
Lincoln Financial FieldESPN2
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TEM 1219
PSU 1954
Projected spread
TEM +23.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
96% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
4%
TEM (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TEM Elo 1219, PSU Elo 1954) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEM +23.6 (4% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelPSU 96% · TEM 4%
Pick: PSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
PSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTEM
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.2046%
Success rate
44%1.20
Explosiveness
1.184.32
Pts / opportunity
4.5876%
Power success
60%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.2841%
Success rate allowed
46%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.2616%
Havoc rate
15%18%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- TEM pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge TEM.
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. TEM pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge TEM.
- TEM rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge PSU.
FAQ
Who will win Penn State vs. Temple?
Gridpex's model favors Penn State with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Penn State vs. Temple?
The model projects Penn State by 23.6.
What time is Penn State vs. Temple and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM on ESPN2, at Lincoln Financial Field.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Penn State at 96% to win, projecting Penn State by 23.6.