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San Diego State vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 12, 11:15 PM
Rose BowlBTN
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UCLA 1322
SDSU 1528
Projected spread
UCLA +9.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
SDSU
77% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
23%
UCLA (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UCLA Elo 1322, SDSU Elo 1528) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +9.8 (23% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSDSU 77% · UCLA 23%
Pick: SDSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SDSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUCLA
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.1242%
Success rate
42%1.18
Explosiveness
1.173.51
Pts / opportunity
2.9880%
Power success
65%Defense
-0.01
PPA allowed / play
0.2535%
Success rate allowed
50%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.1215%
Havoc rate
12%16%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. UCLA pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge UCLA.
- UCLA rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge UCLA.
- UCLA pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge UCLA.
FAQ
Who will win San Diego State vs. UCLA?
Gridpex's model favors San Diego State with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San Diego State vs. UCLA?
The model projects San Diego State by 9.8.
What time is San Diego State vs. UCLA and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 11:15 PM on BTN, at Rose Bowl.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this San Diego State at 77% to win, projecting San Diego State by 9.8.