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UTEP vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MICH 1786
UTEP 1135
Projected spread
MICH -30.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
MICH
99% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
MICH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MICH Elo 1786, UTEP Elo 1135) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -30.6 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUTEP 1% · MICH 99%
Pick: MICH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UTEP2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMICH
Offense
0.02
PPA / play
0.1933%
Success rate
44%1.46
Explosiveness
1.173.42
Pts / opportunity
3.6460%
Power success
77%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.1239%
Success rate allowed
42%1.21
Explosiveness allowed
1.1316%
Havoc rate
17%22%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. UTEP rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge MICH.
- UTEP pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge MICH.
- MICH pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UTEP pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UTEP.
FAQ
Who will win UTEP vs. Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Michigan with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTEP vs. Michigan?
The model projects Michigan by 30.6.
What time is UTEP vs. Michigan and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM on BTN, at Michigan Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Michigan at 99% to win, projecting Michigan by 30.6.