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Penn State vs. Northwestern Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 AM
Ryan FieldFOXConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NU 1574
PSU 1954
Projected spread
NU +11.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
80% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
20%
NU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NU Elo 1574, PSU Elo 1954) plus home-field advantage. That projects NU +11.2 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelPSU 80% · NU 20%
Pick: PSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
PSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNU
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.1546%
Success rate
43%1.20
Explosiveness
1.184.32
Pts / opportunity
3.2176%
Power success
76%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.1741%
Success rate allowed
45%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.1516%
Havoc rate
15%18%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. NU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge PSU.
- NU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NU.
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NU rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge PSU.
FAQ
Who will win Penn State vs. Northwestern?
Gridpex's model favors Penn State with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Penn State vs. Northwestern?
The model projects Penn State by 11.2.
What time is Penn State vs. Northwestern and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 AM on FOX, at Ryan Field.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Penn State at 80% to win, projecting Penn State by 11.2.