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Iowa vs. Washington Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Oct 10, 1:00 AM
Husky StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WASH 1866
IOWA 1937
Projected spread
WASH -0.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
WASH
51% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
51%
WASH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WASH Elo 1866, IOWA Elo 1937) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH -0.4 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelIOWA 49% · WASH 51%
Pick: WASH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
IOWA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWASH
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.2944%
Success rate
49%1.12
Explosiveness
1.234.44
Pts / opportunity
4.5881%
Power success
77%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.0839%
Success rate allowed
39%1.13
Explosiveness allowed
1.1817%
Havoc rate
15%19%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- WASH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. IOWA pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge WASH.
- IOWA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge IOWA.
- WASH rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. IOWA rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge WASH.
FAQ
Who will win Iowa vs. Washington?
Gridpex's model favors Washington with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Iowa vs. Washington?
The model projects Washington by 0.4.
What time is Iowa vs. Washington and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 10, 1:00 AM, at Husky Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Washington at 51% to win, projecting Washington by 0.4.