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Michigan vs. Rutgers Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
RUTG 1469
MICH 1786
Projected spread
RUTG +9.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
MICH
76% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
24%
RUTG (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (RUTG Elo 1469, MICH Elo 1786) plus home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +9.6 (24% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMICH 76% · RUTG 24%
Pick: MICH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MICH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedRUTG
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.2144%
Success rate
47%1.17
Explosiveness
1.223.64
Pts / opportunity
3.3877%
Power success
75%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.3142%
Success rate allowed
47%1.13
Explosiveness allowed
1.3317%
Havoc rate
12%18%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- MICH pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. RUTG pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge RUTG.
- RUTG pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge RUTG.
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. RUTG rush defense (0.26 allowed) — edge RUTG.
FAQ
Who will win Michigan vs. Rutgers?
Gridpex's model favors Michigan with a 76% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Michigan vs. Rutgers?
The model projects Michigan by 9.6.
What time is Michigan vs. Rutgers and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at SHI Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Michigan at 76% to win, projecting Michigan by 9.6.