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UCLA vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MICH 1786
UCLA 1322
Projected spread
MICH -22.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
MICH
95% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
95%
MICH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MICH Elo 1786, UCLA Elo 1322) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -22.4 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUCLA 5% · MICH 95%
Pick: MICH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UCLA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMICH
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.1942%
Success rate
44%1.17
Explosiveness
1.172.98
Pts / opportunity
3.6465%
Power success
77%Defense
0.25
PPA allowed / play
0.1250%
Success rate allowed
42%1.12
Explosiveness allowed
1.1312%
Havoc rate
17%14%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- UCLA rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MICH rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge UCLA.
- MICH pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UCLA pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge UCLA.
- UCLA pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge MICH.
FAQ
Who will win UCLA vs. Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Michigan with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UCLA vs. Michigan?
The model projects Michigan by 22.4.
What time is UCLA vs. Michigan and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Michigan Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Michigan at 95% to win, projecting Michigan by 22.4.