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Penn State vs. Maryland Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
SECU StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MD 1387
PSU 1954
Projected spread
MD +17.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
90% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
10%
MD (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MD Elo 1387, PSU Elo 1954) plus home-field advantage. That projects MD +17.4 (10% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelPSU 90% · MD 10%
Pick: PSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
PSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMD
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.1546%
Success rate
40%1.20
Explosiveness
1.324.32
Pts / opportunity
3.3976%
Power success
73%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.1341%
Success rate allowed
44%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.1916%
Havoc rate
14%18%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. MD pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge PSU.
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MD rush defense (0.13 allowed) — edge PSU.
- MD rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge PSU.
FAQ
Who will win Penn State vs. Maryland?
Gridpex's model favors Penn State with a 90% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Penn State vs. Maryland?
The model projects Penn State by 17.4.
What time is Penn State vs. Maryland and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at SECU Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Penn State at 90% to win, projecting Penn State by 17.4.