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Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Nov 28, 12:30 AM
Camp Randall StadiumNBCConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WIS 1502
MINN 1516
Projected spread
WIS +1.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
MINN
53% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
47%
WIS (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WIS Elo 1502, MINN Elo 1516) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS +1.1 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMINN 53% · WIS 47%
Pick: MINN
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MINN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWIS
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.0140%
Success rate
35%1.20
Explosiveness
1.233.79
Pts / opportunity
2.2873%
Power success
66%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
0.1945%
Success rate allowed
45%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.1718%
Havoc rate
13%20%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- WIS pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. MINN pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge MINN.
- MINN pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. WIS pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge WIS.
- WIS rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. MINN rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge MINN.
FAQ
Who will win Minnesota vs. Wisconsin?
Gridpex's model favors Minnesota with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Minnesota vs. Wisconsin?
The model projects Minnesota by 1.1.
What time is Minnesota vs. Wisconsin and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 12:30 AM on NBC, at Camp Randall Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Minnesota at 53% to win, projecting Minnesota by 1.1.