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Oregon State vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Oct 3, 10:00 PM
Canvas StadiumUSA NetConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CSU 1155
ORST 1150
Projected spread
CSU -2.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
CSU
58% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
58%
CSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CSU Elo 1155, ORST Elo 1150) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU -2.7 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelORST 42% · CSU 58%
Pick: CSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ORST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCSU
Offense
0.05
PPA / play
0.1342%
Success rate
40%1.05
Explosiveness
1.212.89
Pts / opportunity
3.5277%
Power success
59%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.2438%
Success rate allowed
45%1.44
Explosiveness allowed
1.2717%
Havoc rate
13%22%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- ORST pass offense (0.11 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge CSU.
- ORST rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. CSU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. ORST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ORST.
FAQ
Who will win Oregon State vs. Colorado State?
Gridpex's model favors Colorado State with a 58% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oregon State vs. Colorado State?
The model projects Colorado State by 2.7.
What time is Oregon State vs. Colorado State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 3, 10:00 PM on USA Net, at Canvas Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Colorado State at 58% to win, projecting Colorado State by 2.7.