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Washington State vs. Utah State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Oct 10, 1:00 AM
Maverik StadiumThe CW NetworkConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USU 1446
WSU 1549
Projected spread
USU +3.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WSU
60% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
40%
USU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (USU Elo 1446, WSU Elo 1549) plus home-field advantage. That projects USU +3.2 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWSU 60% · USU 40%
Pick: WSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
WSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSU
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.2042%
Success rate
41%1.12
Explosiveness
1.353.93
Pts / opportunity
4.4968%
Power success
71%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.2240%
Success rate allowed
43%1.09
Explosiveness allowed
1.2514%
Havoc rate
13%18%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- USU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge USU.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. USU rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge USU.
- USU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge USU.
FAQ
Who will win Washington State vs. Utah State?
Gridpex's model favors Washington State with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington State vs. Utah State?
The model projects Washington State by 3.2.
What time is Washington State vs. Utah State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 10, 1:00 AM on The CW Network, at Maverik Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Washington State at 60% to win, projecting Washington State by 3.2.