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Temple vs. Toledo Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TOL 1646
TEM 1219
Projected spread
TOL -16.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
TOL
88% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
TOL (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TOL Elo 1646, TEM Elo 1219) plus home-field advantage. That projects TOL -16.2 (88% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelTEM 12% · TOL 88%
Pick: TOL
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TEM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTOL
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.1844%
Success rate
44%1.18
Explosiveness
1.234.58
Pts / opportunity
3.8660%
Power success
78%Defense
0.28
PPA allowed / play
-0.0746%
Success rate allowed
33%1.26
Explosiveness allowed
1.1715%
Havoc rate
20%14%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- TEM pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge TEM.
- TOL pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. TEM pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge TEM.
- TOL rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. TEM rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge TEM.
FAQ
Who will win Temple vs. Toledo?
Gridpex's model favors Toledo with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Temple vs. Toledo?
The model projects Toledo by 16.2.
What time is Temple vs. Toledo and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM on CBSSN, at Glass Bowl.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Toledo at 88% to win, projecting Toledo by 16.2.