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Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Thu, Oct 29, 11:30 PM
Florida Atlantic
American Athletic· Elo 1178
@
Thu, Oct 29, 11:30 PMNorth Texas
American Athletic· Elo 1709
DATCU StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UNT 1709
FAU 1178
Projected spread
UNT -24.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNT
96% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
UNT (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UNT Elo 1709, FAU Elo 1178) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNT -24.3 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelFAU 4% · UNT 96%
Pick: UNT
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
FAU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUNT
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.3642%
Success rate
51%1.39
Explosiveness
1.333.49
Pts / opportunity
4.9877%
Power success
73%Defense
0.26
PPA allowed / play
0.1845%
Success rate allowed
44%1.30
Explosiveness allowed
1.2214%
Havoc rate
14%15%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- FAU rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. UNT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UNT.
- UNT pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge UNT.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. UNT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge FAU.
FAQ
Who will win Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas?
Gridpex's model favors North Texas with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas?
The model projects North Texas by 24.3.
What time is Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 29, 11:30 PM, at DATCU Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this North Texas at 96% to win, projecting North Texas by 24.3.