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UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction, Odds & Pick
Fri, Nov 6, 1:00 AM
FAU StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FAU 1178
UTSA 1668
Projected spread
FAU +13.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
UTSA
84% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
16%
FAU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (FAU Elo 1178, UTSA Elo 1668) plus home-field advantage. That projects FAU +13.2 (16% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUTSA 84% · FAU 16%
Pick: UTSA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UTSA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedFAU
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.2145%
Success rate
42%1.34
Explosiveness
1.394.23
Pts / opportunity
3.4973%
Power success
77%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.2640%
Success rate allowed
45%1.38
Explosiveness allowed
1.3019%
Havoc rate
14%18%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- FAU rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. UTSA rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UTSA.
- UTSA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. UTSA pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge FAU.
FAQ
Who will win UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic?
Gridpex's model favors UTSA with a 84% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic?
The model projects UTSA by 13.2.
What time is UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 6, 1:00 AM, at FAU Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this UTSA at 84% to win, projecting UTSA by 13.2.