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South Florida vs. East Carolina Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 AM
South Florida
American Athletic· Elo 1774
@
Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 AMEast Carolina
American Athletic· Elo 1593
Dowdy-Ficklen StadiumESPN2Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ECU 1593
USF 1774
Projected spread
ECU +2.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
USF
58% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
42%
ECU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ECU Elo 1593, USF Elo 1774) plus home-field advantage. That projects ECU +2.8 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUSF 58% · ECU 42%
Pick: USF
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
USF2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedECU
Offense
0.31
PPA / play
0.2146%
Success rate
46%1.33
Explosiveness
1.184.45
Pts / opportunity
3.7681%
Power success
69%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.0938%
Success rate allowed
38%1.32
Explosiveness allowed
1.2816%
Havoc rate
19%23%
Stuff rate
28%Key matchups · Pro
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge USF.
- ECU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. USF pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge ECU.
- USF rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. ECU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge USF.
FAQ
Who will win South Florida vs. East Carolina?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 58% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Florida vs. East Carolina?
The model projects South Florida by 2.8.
What time is South Florida vs. East Carolina and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 AM on ESPN2, at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this South Florida at 58% to win, projecting South Florida by 2.8.