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Air Force vs. Army Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM
Michie StadiumCBS
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARMY 1589
AF 1386
Projected spread
ARMY -8.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
ARMY
73% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
ARMY (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ARMY Elo 1589, AF Elo 1386) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -8.3 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelAF 27% · ARMY 73%
Pick: ARMY
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
AF2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedARMY
Offense
0.29
PPA / play
0.1947%
Success rate
42%1.22
Explosiveness
1.164.60
Pts / opportunity
3.7079%
Power success
78%Defense
0.41
PPA allowed / play
0.1850%
Success rate allowed
44%1.37
Explosiveness allowed
1.1411%
Havoc rate
13%13%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- AF pass offense (0.55 PPA) vs. ARMY pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge AF.
- ARMY rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. AF rush defense (0.31 allowed) — edge AF.
- AF rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. ARMY rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge AF.
FAQ
Who will win Air Force vs. Army?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 73% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Air Force vs. Army?
The model projects Army by 8.3.
What time is Air Force vs. Army and what channel is it on?
Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM on CBS, at Michie Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Army at 73% to win, projecting Army by 8.3.