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East Carolina vs. Army Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Michie StadiumCBSSNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARMY 1589
ECU 1593
Projected spread
ARMY +1.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ECU
55% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
ARMY (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ARMY Elo 1589, ECU Elo 1593) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARMY +1.6 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelECU 55% · ARMY 45%
Pick: ECU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ECU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedARMY
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.1946%
Success rate
42%1.18
Explosiveness
1.163.76
Pts / opportunity
3.7069%
Power success
78%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.1838%
Success rate allowed
44%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.1419%
Havoc rate
13%28%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- ARMY pass offense (0.47 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge ARMY.
- ARMY rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ECU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge ARMY.
- ECU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. ARMY pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge ECU.
FAQ
Who will win East Carolina vs. Army?
Gridpex's model favors East Carolina with a 55% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for East Carolina vs. Army?
The model projects East Carolina by 1.6.
What time is East Carolina vs. Army and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM on CBSSN, at Michie Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this East Carolina at 55% to win, projecting East Carolina by 1.6.