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Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM
War Memorial StadiumThe CW NetworkConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WYO 1295
NIU 1233
Projected spread
WYO -6.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
WYO
68% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
68%
WYO (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WYO Elo 1295, NIU Elo 1233) plus home-field advantage. That projects WYO -6.5 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelNIU 32% · WYO 68%
Pick: WYO
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NIU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWYO
Offense
0.04
PPA / play
0.0534%
Success rate
38%1.26
Explosiveness
1.173.04
Pts / opportunity
2.9069%
Power success
56%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
0.0744%
Success rate allowed
38%1.20
Explosiveness allowed
1.2111%
Havoc rate
13%15%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- WYO rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge NIU.
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. WYO pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge WYO.
- WYO pass offense (0.12 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge NIU.
FAQ
Who will win Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming?
Gridpex's model favors Wyoming with a 68% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming?
The model projects Wyoming by 6.5.
What time is Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM on The CW Network, at War Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Wyoming at 68% to win, projecting Wyoming by 6.5.