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Hawai'i vs. Nevada Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEV 1277
HAW 1459
Projected spread
NEV +9.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
HAW
75% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
25%
NEV (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NEV Elo 1277, HAW Elo 1459) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV +9.2 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelHAW 75% · NEV 25%
Pick: HAW
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
HAW2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNEV
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.0241%
Success rate
37%1.34
Explosiveness
1.203.77
Pts / opportunity
2.6759%
Power success
72%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.1942%
Success rate allowed
44%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2016%
Havoc rate
14%16%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- NEV pass offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. HAW pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge HAW.
- HAW rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge NEV.
- HAW pass offense (0.31 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge HAW.
FAQ
Who will win Hawai'i vs. Nevada?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Hawai'i vs. Nevada?
The model projects Hawai'i by 9.2.
What time is Hawai'i vs. Nevada and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Mackay Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Hawai'i at 75% to win, projecting Hawai'i by 9.2.