App State vs. NC State Prediction, Odds & Pick

Time TBD

App State

Sun Belt· Elo 1216

Time TBD

NC State

ACC· Elo 1605

Carter-Finley Stadium

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)

NCSU 1605

APP 1216

Projected spread

NCSU -18.3

incl. home edge

Model pick

NCSU

91% to win

Market spread

—

sportsbook line

Model edge

None

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

91%

NCSU (no market)

Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NCSU Elo 1605, APP Elo 1216) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -18.3 (91% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Pregame Win Probability

Gridpex modelAPP 9% · NCSU 91%

Pick: NCSU

Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.

Advanced Matchup — 2025

APP2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNCSU

Offense

0.12

PPA / play

0.28

42%

Success rate

44%

1.18

Explosiveness

1.38

3.50

Pts / opportunity

4.69

69%

Power success

73%

Defense

0.18

PPA allowed / play

0.21

45%

Success rate allowed

39%

1.19

Explosiveness allowed

1.44

17%

Havoc rate

15%

18%

Stuff rate

19%

Key matchups · Pro

NCSU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. APP rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge NCSU.
APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NCSU pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge NCSU.
NCSU pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge NCSU.

FAQ

Who will win App State vs. NC State?

Gridpex's model favors NC State with a 91% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for App State vs. NC State?

The model projects NC State by 18.3.

What time is App State vs. NC State and what channel is it on?

Time TBD, at Carter-Finley Stadium.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.

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Gridiron IQ Model

Pinned · the model's take

I make this NC State at 91% to win, projecting NC State by 18.3.