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Charlotte vs. App State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM
Kidd Brewer StadiumESPN+
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
APP 1216
CLT 1023
Projected spread
APP -14.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
APP
86% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
86%
APP (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (APP Elo 1216, CLT Elo 1023) plus home-field advantage. That projects APP -14.3 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCLT 14% · APP 86%
Pick: APP
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
CLT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedAPP
Offense
-0.01
PPA / play
0.1234%
Success rate
42%1.28
Explosiveness
1.182.73
Pts / opportunity
3.5061%
Power success
69%Defense
0.26
PPA allowed / play
0.1854%
Success rate allowed
45%1.09
Explosiveness allowed
1.1911%
Havoc rate
17%14%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- CLT rush offense (-0.15 PPA) vs. APP rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge APP.
- CLT pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge APP.
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. CLT rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge CLT.
FAQ
Who will win Charlotte vs. App State?
Gridpex's model favors App State with a 86% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Charlotte vs. App State?
The model projects App State by 14.3.
What time is Charlotte vs. App State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM on ESPN+, at Kidd Brewer Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this App State at 86% to win, projecting App State by 14.3.