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New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM
Aggie Memorial StadiumCBSSN
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NMSU 1172
UNM 1494
Projected spread
NMSU +12.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNM
82% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
18%
NMSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NMSU Elo 1172, UNM Elo 1494) plus home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +12.4 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUNM 82% · NMSU 18%
Pick: UNM
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UNM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNMSU
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.0542%
Success rate
37%1.26
Explosiveness
1.263.96
Pts / opportunity
3.2175%
Power success
69%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.1140%
Success rate allowed
42%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.2117%
Havoc rate
16%23%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- UNM rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge UNM.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. UNM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge UNM.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. UNM pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UNM.
FAQ
Who will win New Mexico vs. New Mexico State?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 82% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico vs. New Mexico State?
The model projects New Mexico by 12.4.
What time is New Mexico vs. New Mexico State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM on CBSSN, at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this New Mexico at 82% to win, projecting New Mexico by 12.4.