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Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Thu, Oct 22, 11:00 PM
Fifth Third StadiumCBSSNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KENN 1310
LIB 1441
Projected spread
KENN -2
incl. home edge
Model pick
KENN
56% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
56%
KENN (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (KENN Elo 1310, LIB Elo 1441) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENN -2 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelLIB 44% · KENN 56%
Pick: KENN
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
LIB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedKENN
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.1744%
Success rate
41%1.20
Explosiveness
1.353.68
Pts / opportunity
2.9573%
Power success
80%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.1642%
Success rate allowed
42%1.30
Explosiveness allowed
1.2213%
Havoc rate
17%18%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- KENN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. LIB rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge LIB.
- KENN pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. LIB pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge KENN.
- LIB rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. KENN rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge LIB.
FAQ
Who will win Liberty vs. Kennesaw State?
Gridpex's model favors Kennesaw State with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Liberty vs. Kennesaw State?
The model projects Kennesaw State by 2.0.
What time is Liberty vs. Kennesaw State and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 22, 11:00 PM on CBSSN, at Fifth Third Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Kennesaw State at 56% to win, projecting Kennesaw State by 2.0.