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Florida International vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Williams Stadium (VA)CBSSNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LIB 1441
FIU 1324
Projected spread
LIB -5.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
LIB
65% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
65%
LIB (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (LIB Elo 1441, FIU Elo 1324) plus home-field advantage. That projects LIB -5.3 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelFIU 35% · LIB 65%
Pick: LIB
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
FIU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedLIB
Offense
0.16
PPA / play
0.1741%
Success rate
44%1.31
Explosiveness
1.204.12
Pts / opportunity
3.6874%
Power success
73%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.2143%
Success rate allowed
42%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.3016%
Havoc rate
13%16%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- LIB rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge LIB.
- LIB pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FIU.
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. LIB rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge LIB.
FAQ
Who will win Florida International vs. Liberty?
Gridpex's model favors Liberty with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida International vs. Liberty?
The model projects Liberty by 5.3.
What time is Florida International vs. Liberty and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM on CBSSN, at Williams Stadium (VA).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Liberty at 65% to win, projecting Liberty by 5.3.