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Southern Miss vs. Troy Prediction, Odds & Pick
Wed, Oct 7, 12:00 AM
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)ESPN2Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TROY 1384
USM 1275
Projected spread
TROY -5.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
TROY
66% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
TROY (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TROY Elo 1384, USM Elo 1275) plus home-field advantage. That projects TROY -5.6 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUSM 34% · TROY 66%
Pick: TROY
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
USM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTROY
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.1039%
Success rate
38%1.34
Explosiveness
1.303.60
Pts / opportunity
3.6767%
Power success
78%Defense
0.10
PPA allowed / play
0.1241%
Success rate allowed
40%1.21
Explosiveness allowed
1.2917%
Havoc rate
16%18%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- TROY rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge USM.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. TROY pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge USM.
- TROY pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge TROY.
FAQ
Who will win Southern Miss vs. Troy?
Gridpex's model favors Troy with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Southern Miss vs. Troy?
The model projects Troy by 5.6.
What time is Southern Miss vs. Troy and what channel is it on?
Wed, Oct 7, 12:00 AM on ESPN2, at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Troy at 66% to win, projecting Troy by 5.6.