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South Alabama vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
M. M. Roberts StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USM 1275
USA 1336
Projected spread
USM -4.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
USM
63% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
63%
USM (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (USM Elo 1275, USA Elo 1336) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM -4.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUSA 37% · USM 63%
Pick: USM
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
USA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSM
Offense
0.16
PPA / play
0.1842%
Success rate
39%1.21
Explosiveness
1.344.01
Pts / opportunity
3.6076%
Power success
67%Defense
0.24
PPA allowed / play
0.1043%
Success rate allowed
41%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.2115%
Havoc rate
17%17%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- USA pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge USA.
- USM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. USA rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USA.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. USA pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge USA.
FAQ
Who will win South Alabama vs. Southern Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Southern Miss with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Alabama vs. Southern Miss?
The model projects Southern Miss by 4.4.
What time is South Alabama vs. Southern Miss and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at M. M. Roberts Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Southern Miss at 63% to win, projecting Southern Miss by 4.4.