USC's Strong passing offense faces a weak San José State pass defense
40,000 simulated games from the drive-level engine. Each bar is the share of sims landing in that final-margin range. Taller toward USC = USC more likely.
USC is favored by 35.5 points, largely due to its strong passing offense, which ranked 4th nationally last season. This unit, led by returning starter Jayden Maiava, will face a San José State pass defense that ranked 108th, among the worst in the country.
| Likely starter | Why we project him | |
|---|---|---|
| San José State | Luke Weaver (from Hawai'i) | Transfer projection — +0.14 career EPA/play, 1 FBS season(s) |
| USC | Jayden Maiava (returning) | Returning starter — +0.31 career EPA/play |
The decisive unit battle between USC's passing offense and San José State's passing defense favors USC by 3.0 standard deviations. This significant edge is a major factor in the large point spread.
Each unit crossing from last season's opponent-adjusted PPA, in standard deviations. Bars toward USC (green) are battles it should win; the other way (red) favor San José State. Larger = more decisive. Last-season proxy — heavy roster turnover loosens it.
San José State's defense, which allowed 32.5 points per game last season, will face a significant challenge in slowing down USC's high-powered offense. The Spartans' pass defense, in particular, will need to improve significantly to have any chance of keeping the game close.
| Player | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| San José State | Jalen Bainer (CB) | 44 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 5 PD, 3 INT |
| San José State | Jordan Pollard (LB) | 108 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 4 PD, 1 INT |
| San José State | Taniela Latu (LB) | 65 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 3 PD, 1 INT |
| USC | Braylan Shelby (DE) | 25 tkl, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| USC | Kameryn Crawford (DE) | 34 tkl, 3.5 sacks |
| USC | Christian Pierce (S) | 58 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 3 PD |
San José State's best chance to cover or pull off an upset is to establish a strong running game, led by returning backs Jabari Bates and Floyd Chalk IV, and control the clock. This would limit USC's possessions and potentially keep the score closer than expected.
How we grade the gap between these rosters, factor by factor, in points. Bars toward USC are where it's the stronger team; bars the other way are where San José State closes ground. They sum to our USC by 32 projection.
For USC to win convincingly, it needs to establish its passing game early and take advantage of San José State's weak pass defense. The Trojans also need to limit the Spartans' running game and force them into passing situations, where USC's defense can capitalize on mistakes.
Gridpex's desks are model-driven, AI-assisted columns. Every figure is generated from our own data and ratings — not invented. We don't fabricate reporters, quotes, or sources. Published Wed, Aug 26, 2026 · game-engine:deep-preview.
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